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A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

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The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty

Since the formalization of asset allocation in 1952 with the publication of Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz, there have been great strides made to enhance the application of this groundbreaking theory. However, progress has been uneven. It has been punctuated with instances of misleading research, which has contributed to the stubborn persistence of certain fallacies about asset allocation. A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation fills a void in the literature by offering a hands-on resource that describes the many important innovations that address key challenges to asset allocation and dispels common fallacies about asset allocation. The authors cover the fundamentals of asset allocation, including a discussion of the attributes that qualify a group of securities as an asset class and a detailed description of the conventional application of mean-variance analysis to asset allocation.. The authors review a number of common fallacies about asset allocation and dispel these misconceptions with logic or hard evidence. The fallacies debunked include such notions as: asset allocation determines more than 90% of investment performance; time diversifies risk; optimization is hypersensitive to estimation error; factors provide greater diversification than assets and are more effective at reducing noise; and that equally weighted portfolios perform more reliably out of sample than optimized portfolios. A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation also explores the innovations that address key challenges to asset allocation and presents an alternative optimization procedure to address the idea that some investors have complex preferences and returns may not be elliptically distributed. Among the challenges highlighted, the authors explain how to overcome inefficiencies that result from constraints by expanding the optimization objective function to incorporate absolute and relative goals simultaneously. The text also explores the challenge of currency risk, describes how to use shadow assets and liabilities to unify liquidity with expected return and risk, and shows how to evaluate alternative asset mixes by assessing exposure to loss throughout the investment horizon based on regime-dependent risk. This practical text contains an illustrative example of asset allocation which is used to demonstrate the impact of the innovations described throughout the book. In addition, the book includes supplemental material that summarizes the key takeaways and includes information on relevant statistical and theoretical concepts, as well as a comprehensive glossary of terms.

A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation

An updated guide to the theory and practice of investment management Many books focus on the theory of investment management and leave the details of the implementation of the theory up to you. This book illustrates how theory is applied in practice while stressing the importance of the portfolio construction process. The Second Edition of The Theory and Practice of Investment Management is the ultimate guide to understanding the various aspects of investment management and investment vehicles. Tying together theoretical advances in investment management with actual practical applications, this book gives you a unique opportunity to use proven investment management techniques to protect and grow a portfolio under many different circumstances. Contains new material on the latest tools and strategies for both equity and fixed income portfolio management Includes key take-aways as well as study questions at the conclusion of each chapter A timely updated guide to an important topic in today's investment world This comprehensive investment management resource combines real-world financial knowledge with investment management theory to provide you with the practical guidance needed to succeed within the investment management arena.

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The Theory and Practice of Investment Management. Asset Allocation, Valuation, Portfolio Construction, and Strategies

A detailed look at equity valuation and portfolio management Equity valuation is a method of valuing stock prices using fundamental analysis to determine the worth of the business and discover investment opportunities. In Equity Valuation and Portfolio Management Frank J. Fabozzi and Harry M. Markowitz explain the process of equity valuation, provide the necessary mathematical background, and discuss classic and new portfolio strategies for investment managers. Divided into two comprehensive parts, this reliable resource focuses on valuation and portfolio strategies related to equities. Discusses both fundamental and new techniques for valuation and strategies Fabozzi and Markowitz are experts in the fields of investment management and economics Includes end of chapter bullet point summaries, key chapter take-aways, and study questions Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, Equity Valuation and Portfolio Management will put you in a better position to excel at this challenging endeavor.

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Equity Valuation and Portfolio Management

Expert advice that applies the theory and practice of investment management to today's financial environment The changing nature and rapid growth of the investment management industry, along with new theoretical developments in the field of finance, have led to a need for higher quality investment management practices and better qualified professionals. The Theory and Practice of Investment Management recognizes these needs and addresses them with sharp, innovative insights from some of the most respected experts in the field of investment management. The Theory and Practice of Investment Management discusses and describes the full scope of investment products and strategies available in today's market. Led by financial experts Frank Fabozzi and Harry Markowitz, the contributors to this book are active, successful practitioners with hands-on expertise. By combining real-world financial knowledge with investment management theory, this book provides a complete analysis of all pertinent investment products-including hedge funds and private equity-and explores a wide range of investment strategies. Tying together theoretical advances in investment management with actual applications, this book gives readers an opportunity to use proven investment management techniques to protect and grow a portfolio under many different circumstances.