Конца света не будет. Почему экологический алармизм причиняет нам вред
16
Robinson Meyer, “The Oceans We Know Won’t Survive Climate Change,” The Atlantic, September 25, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com.
17
Stefan Rahmstorf, Jason E. Box, Georg Feulner et al., “Exceptional Twentieth-Century Slowdown in Atlantic Ocean Overturning Circulation,” Nature Climate Change 5 (2015): 475–80, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2554.
18
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, P. M. Cox et al., “An Observation-Based Constraint on Permafrost Loss as a Function of Global Warming,” Nature Climate Change 7 (2017): 340–44, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262.
19
Robinson Meyer, “The Oceans We Know Won’t Survive Climate Change,” The Atlantic, September 25, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com.
20
Richard W. Spinrad and Ian Boyd, “Our Deadened, Carbon-Soaked Seas,” New York Times, October 15, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com. John Ross, “Ex-judge to Investigate Controversial Marine Research,” Times Higher Education, January 8, 2020.
21
“Top 20 Most Destructive California Fires,” California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, August 8, 2019, https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5511/top20_destruction.pdf.
22
Natacha Larnaud, “ ‘This Will Only Get Worse in the Future’: Experts See Direct Line Between California Wildfires and Climate Change,” CBS News, October 30, 2019, https://www.cbsnews.com.
23
Leonardo DiCaprio (@LeoDiCaprio), “The reason these wildfires have worsened is because of climate change and a historic drought. Helping victims and fire relief efforts in our state should not be a partisan issue,” Twitter, November 10, 2018, 3:32 p.m., https://twitter.com/leodicaprio/status/1061401158856687616.
24
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC), “This is what climate change looks like. The GOP like to mock scientific warnings about climate change as exaggeration. But just look around: it’s already starting. We have 10 years to cut carbon emissions in half. If we don’t, scenes like this can get much worse. #GreenNewDeal,” Twitter, October 28, 2019, 6:09 a.m., https://twitter.com/aoc/status/1188805012631310336.
25
Farhad Manjoo, “It’s the End of California as We Know It,” New York Times, October 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com.
26
Scott Neuman, “Enormous ‘Megafire’ in Australia Engulfs 1.5 Million Acres,” NPR, January 10, 2020, accessed January 15, 2020, https://www.npr.org. “Fathers, son, newlyweds: Nation mourns 29 lives lost to bushfires,” Daily Telegraph, January 22, 2020, https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au.
27
David Wallace-Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming (New York: Crown Publishing Group, 2019), 16.
28
Pat Bradley, “Leading Environmentalist Reacts to Latest IPCC Report,” WAMC, October 9, 2018, https://www.wamc.org/post/leading-environmentalist-reacts-latest-ipcc-report.
29
Coral Davenport, “Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040,” New York Times, October 7, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com.
30
Guardian News, “ ‘I Want You to Panic’: 16-Year-Old Issues Climate Warning at Davos,” YouTube, January 25, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsLm5PCdVQ.
31
William Cummings, “ ‘The World Is Going to End in 12 Years if We Don’t Address Climate Change,’ Ocasio-Cortez says,” USA Today, January 22, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com.
32
Andrew Freedman, “Climate Scientists Refute 12-Year Deadline to Curb Global Warming,” Axios, January 22, 2019, https://www.axios.com.
33
Ibid.
34
V. Masson-Delmonte, Panmao Zhai, Hans-Otto Pörtner et al., eds, Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf.
35
Liz Kalaugher, “Scientist or Climate Activist – Where’s the Line?” Physics World, September 20, 2019, https://physicsworld.com/a/climate-scientist-or-climate-activist-wheres-the-line.
36
Kerry Emanuel (climate scientist, MIT) in discussion with the author, November 15, 2019.
37
Andrew Freedman, “Climate Scientists Refute 12-Year Deadline to Curb Global Warming,” Axios, January 22, 2019, https://www.axios.com.
38
Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Global Deaths from Natural Disasters,” Our World in Data, accessed October 25, 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters. Data published by EMDAT (2019): OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain – Brussels – Belgium. Data for individual years are summed over ten-year intervals from first to last year of each calendar decade.
39
Giuseppe Formetta and Luc Feyen, “Empirical Evidence of Declining Global Vulnerability to Climate-Related Hazards,” Global Environmental Change 57 (July 2019): article 101920, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.004.
40
“Sea Level Change: Scientific Understanding and Uncertainties,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, edited by Thomas F. Stocker, Dahe Quin, Gian-Kasper Plattner et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL.pdf, 47–59.
41
The Zuidplaspolder in the western Netherlands is 6.76m below sea level. The IPCC in its Medium scenario (RCP4.5) predicts a 0.39m median sea level rise from a 1990 baseline through year 2200.
42
“Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100,” Dutch Water Sector, May 20, 2019, https://www.dutchwatersector.com/news/bangladesh-delta-plan-2100; “Deltaplan Bangladesh,” Deltares, https://www.deltares.nl/en/projects/deltaplan-bangladesh-2.
43
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist), in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019; Jon. E. Keeley and Alexandra Syphard, “Different historical fire – climate patterns in California,”International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, no. 4 (January 2017): 253, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16102.
44
Alexandra D. Syphard, John E. Keeley, Anne H. Pfaff, and Ken Ferschweiler, “Human Presence Diminishes the Importance of Climate in Driving Fire Activity Across the United States,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114, no. 52 (December 2017): 13750–55, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713885114.
45
Alexandria Symonds, “Amazon Rainforest Fires: Here’s What’s Really Happening,” New York Times, August 23, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com.
46
Timothy D. Clark, Graham D. Raby, Dominique G. Roche et al., “Ocean Acidification Does Not Impair the Behaviour of Coral Reef Fishes,” Nature 557 (2020): 370–75, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1903-y. John Ross, “Ex-judge to Investigate Controversial Marine Research,” Times Higher Education, January 8, 2020.
47
The Future of Food and Agriculture: Alternative Pathways to 2050, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2018, http://www.fao.org/3/I8429EN/i8429en.pdf, 76–77.
48
Eric Holt-Giménez, Annie Shattuck, Miguel Altieri, et al., “We Already Grow Enough Food for 10 Billion People… and Still Can’t End Hunger,” Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 36, no. 6 (2012): 595–98, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10440046.2012.695331. The Future of Food and Agriculture: Alternative Pathways to 2050, 82.
49
The Future of Food and Agriculture: Alternative Pathways to 2050, 76–77.
50
“IPCC, “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development”, In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report. 2018. Nordhaus, William. “Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies.” 2018. doi:10.3386/w22933.41. Though some experts call the country “Democratic Republic of the Congo,” in part because there is a different, smaller nation called “Republic of the Congo,” many in the DRC refer to it simply as “the Congo.”
51
For more information on the Great African War and its impact on the Congo, see David Van Reybrouck, Congo: The Epic History of a People (New York: HarperCollins, 2010) and Gérard Prunier, Africa’s World Wars: Congo, the Rwandan Genocide, and the Making of a Continental Catastrophe (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2010), 338.
52
“Democratic Republic of the Congo Travel Advisory,” U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs, January 2, 2020, https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-travel-advisory.html.
53
“Access to Electricity (% of Population): Congo, Rep., Congo, Dem. Rep,” World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org.
54
Africa Energy Outlook: A Focus on Energy Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa(Paris: International Energy Agency, 2014), 32.
55
Pauline Bax and Williams Clowes, “Three Gorges Has Nothing on ChinaBacked Dam to Power Africa,” Bloomberg, August 5, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com.
56
Katharine J. Mach, Caroline M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger et al., “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict,” Nature 571 (2019): 193–97, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6.
57
“Globally, medium to high levels of land degradation are related to increased conflict, as are very high levels of water scarcity, but the relative increases in risk are quite small. Increasing levels of land degradation increase the risk of conflict from a baseline of 1 percent to between 2–4 percent.” Hedrik Urdal, “People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict Revisited,” Journal of Peace Research 42 (2005): 417–34, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305054089. Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, “Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict,” Environmental Change and Security Programme 13 (2008–2009): 27–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.
58
Michael Oppenheimer, Bruce C. Glavovic, Jochen Hinkel et al., “Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities,” in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/08_SROCC_Ch04_FINAL.pdf, 321–445.
59
Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal, “Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict,” Environmental Change and Security Programme 13 (2008–2009): 27–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005.
60
David Van Reybrouk, Congo: An Epic History of a People (New York: HarperCollins, 2014).
61
World Bank, “GDP (current US$)-Congo, Dem. Rep.,” World Bank, accessed January 15, 2020, https://data.worldbank.org.
62
Ibid.
63
Peter Jones and David Smith, “UN Report on Rwanda Fuelling Congo Conflict ‘Blocked by US,’ ” The Guardian, June 20, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com.
64
Tom Wilson, David Blood, and David Pilling, “Congo Voting Data Reveal Huge Fraud in Poll to Replace Kabila,” Financial Times, January 15, 2019, https://www.ft.com.
65
Myles Allen and Sarah Lunnon, interviewed by Emma Barrett, Newsnight, BBC, aired October 10, 2019, on BBC.
66
Sarah Lunnon (Extinction Rebellion spokesperson) in discussion with the author, November 26, 2019.
67
Gaia Vince, “The Heat Is On over the Climate Crisis. Only Radical Measures Will Work,” The Guardian, May 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com.
68
Sarah Lunnon (Extinction Rebellion spokesperson) in discussion with the author, November 26, 2019.
69
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
70
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
71
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
72
Johan Rockström (director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in discussion with the author, November 27, 2019.
73
Hans van Meijl et al., “Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050,” Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6 (2018), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748–9326/aabdc4/pdf.
74
“This occurs because… land-based mitigation leads to less land availability for food production, potentially lower food supply, and therefore food price increases.” Cheikh Mbow et al., “Chapter Five: Food Security,” in V. Masson-Delmotte et al., eds., Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (IPCC, 2019), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/11/SRCCL-Full-Report-Compiled-191128.pdf.
75
FAO, The Future of Food and Agriculture – Alternative Pathways to 2050 (Rome: United Nations, 2018), accessed December 16, 2019, http://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/food-agriculture-projections-to-2050/en.
76
Roger Pielke, Jr., “I Am Under Investigation,” The Climate Fix (blog), February 25, 2015, https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/i-am-under-investigation.
77
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming (New York: Basic Books, 2011), 162.
78
Laurens M. Bouwer, Ryan P. Crompton, Eberhard Faust et al., “Confronting Disaster Losses,” Science 318 (December 2007): 753, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5871449_Disaster_management_Confronting_disaster_losses. Peter Höppe and Roger Pielke, Jr., eds., “Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Losses: Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections,” May 25-26, 2006, Hohenkammer, Germany, https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/research_areas/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/ccdl_workshop_brochure.pdf.
79
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 171.
80
Jessica Weinkle, Chris Landsea, Douglas Collins, et al., “Normalized Hurricane Damage in the Continental United States 1900–2017,” Nature Sustainability 1 (2018): 808–813, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0165–2; Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 171.
81
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 171.
82
Pielke cited two studies for this claim: Thomas Knutson, Suzana J. Camargo, Johnny C. L. Chan et al., “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution,” American Meteorological Society, October 2019, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1, and “2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season,” National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr. Roger Pielke, Jr., “When Is Climate Change Just Weather? What Hurricane Dorian Coverage Mixes Up, on Purpose,” Forbes, September 4, 2019, https://www.forbes.com.
83
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 170–172.
84
Roger Pielke, Jr., “My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic,” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2016, https://www.wsj.com.
85
Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker et al., eds., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_Full_Report-1.pdf, 9.
86
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 175.
87
Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever – but Not Because of Climate Change,” FiveThirtyEight, March 19, 2014, https://fivethirtyeight.com.
88
Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 174.
89
Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever – but Not Because of Climate Change.”
90
Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever – but Not Because of Climate Change.”
91
Robinson Meyer, “The Oceans We Know Won’t Survive Climate Change,” Atlantic, September 25, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com.
92
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
93
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
94
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
95
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
96
Michael Oppenheimer (IPCC author) in discussion with the author, December 26, 2019.
97
“Project Information Document (PID) Concept Stage: DRC – Growth with Governance in the Mineral Sector,” Report no. AB3834, World Bank, March 24, 2009, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/341011468234300132/pdf/Project0Inform1cument1Concept0Stage.pdf. Ernest Mpararo, “Democratic Republic of the Congo,” Transparency International, 2018, https://www.transparency.org/country/COD. For an overview of Congo’s history and the role of colonialism and decolonization, see Van Reybrouck, Congo. Congo ranks 161st out of 180 (the highest) in terms of perceived corruption.
98
“Top 20 Deadliest California Wildfires,” California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, September 27, 2019, https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5512/top20_deadliest.pdf.
99
Jon E. Keeley and Alexandra D. Syphard, “Twenty-first Century California, USA, Wildfires: Fuel-Dominated vs. Wind-Dominated Fires,” Fire Ecology 15, article no. 24, July 18, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0041-0.
100
Jon E. Keeley and Alexandra D. Syphard, “Historical Patterns of Wildfire Ignition Sources in California Ecosystems,” International Journal of Wildland Fire 27, no. 12 (2018): 781–99, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18026.
101
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
102
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
103
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
104
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
105
Jon. E. Keeley (U.S. Geological Survey scientist) in discussion with the author, November 4, 2019.
106
David Packham, interviewed by Andrew Bolt, The Bolt Report, Sky News Australia, November 11, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6RrgBrb6R8.
107
S. Ellis, P. Kanowski, and R.J. Whelan, “National Inquiry on Bushfire Mitigation and Management,” University of Wollongong Research Online, March 31, 2004, https://ro.uow.edu.au. Luke Henrique-Gomes, “Bushfires death toll rises to 33 after body found in burnt-out house near Moruya,” Guardian, January 24, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com. “Bushfire – Southeast Victoria,” Australia Institute for Disaster Resilience, https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-south-east-victoria. Bernard Teague, Ronald McLeod, and Susan Pascoe, Final Report Summary, Victorian Brushfires Royal Commission, 2009. http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF.pdf. // “Black Friday bushfires, 1939,” Australia Institute for Disaster Resilience, https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-black-friday-victoria-1939.
108
Lauren Jeffrey (British YouTuber) in discussion with the author, December 3, 2019.
109
Dan McDougall, “‘Ecological grief’: Greenland residents traumatised by climate emergency,” Guardian, August 12, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com; Mary Ward, “Climate anxiety is real, and young people are feeling it,” Sydney Morning Herald, September 20, 2019, https://www.smh.com.au.
110
Susan Clayton et al., “Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance,” American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, March 2017, https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2017/03/mental-health-climate.pdf.
111
Reuters, “One in five UK children report nightmares about climate change,” March 2, 2020.
112
Sonia Elks, “Suffering Eco-anxiety over Climate Change, Say Psychologists,” Reuters, September 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com.
113
Rupert Read, “How I Talk with Children About Climate Breakdown,” YouTube (video), August 18, 2019, https://youtu.be/6Lt0jCDtYSY.
114
Zion Lights, interviewed by Andrew Neil, The Andrew Neil Show, BBC, aired October 10, 2019, on BBC, https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=pO1TTcETyuU&feature=emb_logo.
115
Здесь и далее: по состоянию на июль 2022 года Facebook, Instagram, Twitter и Linkedin внесены в реестр запрещенных сайтов на территории РФ.
116
Lauren Jeffrey, “An Open Letter to Extinction Rebellion,” YouTube (video), October 21, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyYPLkWV3l0.
117
Peter James Spielmann, “UN Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked,” Associated Press, June 29, 1989, https://apnews.com.
118
Roger Pielke, Jr., “The Uninhabitable Earth – Future Imperfect,” Financial Times, March 8, 2019, https://www.ft.com.
119
Allyson Chiu, “ ‘It Snuck up on Us’: Scientists Stunned by ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid That Just Missed Earth,” «The Washington Post», July 26, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com.
120
Nick Perry, “Death toll from New Zealand volcano rises to 21 as victim dies from injuries nearly two months later,” Independent, January 29, 2020, https://www.independent.co.uk.
121
“ ‘Stealth Transmission’ Fuels Fast Spread of Coronavirus Outbreak,” Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, February 26, 2020, https://www.mailman.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/stealth-transmission-fuels-fast-spread-coronavirus-outbreak.
122
Kerry Emanuel (climate scientist, MIT) in discussion with the author, November 15, 2019.